WR, Los Angeles Chargers
1
Quentin Johnston
13%
Quentin Johnston has a 13% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 175th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 17.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.7, receiving yards 38.
Touchdown breakdown
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−20%KC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.05 × 0.80 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.07 expected TDs = 7% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 13% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
1Quentin JohnstonWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.9
52%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.5Targets
›49%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.9
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Quentin JohnstonWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 38 proj, avg 42
45%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.5Targets
›49%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›13.7Yards per catch
›37Model
›38Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 41.5Projection 38Ceiling 69
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 41.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 81% | 87% | 75% | – |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.