QB, Denver Broncos
10
Bo Nix
15%
Bo Nix has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, the 163rd highest on this week's board. Denver Broncos are projected for 19.0 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 202.
Touchdown breakdown
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−23%SEA defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.09 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
10Bo NixQB, DEN vs SEAPassing yards: 202 proj, avg 206
47%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Pass attempts
›5.9Yards per attempt
›201Model
›202Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−5%SEA pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 145Avg line 205.5Projection 202Ceiling 259
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 205.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 100% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.