TE, Denver Broncos
1
Evan Engram
17%
Evan Engram has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, the 147th highest on this week's board. Denver Broncos are projected for 19.0 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.5, receiving yards 24.
Touchdown breakdown
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−4%SEA defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.07 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
1Evan EngramTE, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
46%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.0Targets
›62%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Evan EngramTE, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 24 proj, avg 26
45%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.0Targets
›62%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›9.6Yards per catch
›24Model
›24Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 26.5Projection 24Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 52% | 60% | 67% | 48% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.