RB, Denver Broncos
12
RJ Harvey
28%
RJ Harvey has a 28% chance to score a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, the 74th highest on this week's board. Denver Broncos are projected for 19.0 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 23, receptions 4.1, receiving yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−2%SEA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.11 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 28% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
12RJ HarveyRB, DEN vs SEARushing yards: 23 proj, avg 23
52%
56.8Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›22.8Team carries
›28%Carry share
›6.4Carries
›3.6Yards per carry
›23Model
›23Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−2%Game script
−3%SEA run D
−1%SEA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 22.5Projection 23Ceiling 38
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12RJ HarveyRB, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 3.9
58%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›86%Catch rate
›4.2Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−1%SEA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 3.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.7
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12RJ HarveyRB, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 27
48%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›86%Catch rate
›4.2Receptions
›6.4Yards per catch
›27Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−1%SEA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 27.5Projection 27Ceiling 48
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51% | – | 36% | 44% | 37% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.