WR, Denver Broncos
17
Jaylen Waddle
25%
Jaylen Waddle has a 25% chance to score a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, the 91st highest on this week's board. Denver Broncos are projected for 19.0 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.6, receiving yards 39.
Touchdown breakdown
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−3%SEA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.10 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
17Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.6
49%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.5Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.6Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 39 proj, avg 41
47%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.5Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.6Receptions
›10.5Yards per catch
›38Model
›39Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 40.5Projection 39Ceiling 69
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 40.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 61% | 73% | 68% | 65% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.