WR, Denver Broncos
19
Marvin Mims Jr.
15%
Marvin Mims Jr. has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, the 165th highest on this week's board. Denver Broncos are projected for 19.0 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.3, receiving yards 17.
Touchdown breakdown
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−3%SEA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.05 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.11 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
19Marvin Mims Jr.WR, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.2
41%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.2
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Marvin Mims Jr.WR, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 17 proj, avg 17
49%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›7.3Yards per catch
›17Model
›17Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 17Ceiling 31
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | – | – | 27% | 19% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.