WR, Denver Broncos
14
Courtland Sutton
24%
Courtland Sutton has a 24% chance to score a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, the 92nd highest on this week's board. Denver Broncos are projected for 19.0 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.1, receiving yards 34.
Touchdown breakdown
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%SEA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.26 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
14Courtland SuttonWR, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.1
38%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.0Targets
›52%Catch rate
›3.1Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Courtland SuttonWR, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 36
46%
56.8Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.0Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.0Targets
›52%Catch rate
›3.1Receptions
›10.9Yards per catch
›34Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+1%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 36.5Projection 34Ceiling 62
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 36.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 73% | 87% | 73% | 81% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.