WR, Denver Broncos
11
Troy Franklin
14%
Troy Franklin has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, the 202nd highest on this week's board. Denver Broncos are projected for 22.6 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 2.2, receiving yards 25.
Touchdown breakdown
22.6Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−3%SEA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.05 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.11 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
11Troy FranklinWR, DEN vs SEAReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.4
38%
56.4Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›31.9Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.5Targets
›61%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−4%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Troy FranklinWR, DEN vs SEAReceiving yards: 25 proj, avg 29
41%
56.4Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›31.9Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.5Targets
›61%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›11.2Yards per catch
›24Model
›25Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−4%Game script
−8%SEA pass D
−2%SEA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 28.5Projection 25Ceiling 45
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 21% | 18% | 48% | 63% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.