QB, Carolina Panthers
9
Bryce Young
12%
Bryce Young has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, the 176th highest on this week's board. Carolina Panthers are projected for 20.5 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 243.
Touchdown breakdown
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+45%PHI defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.04 × 1.45 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
9Bryce YoungQB, CAR vs PHIPassing yards: 243 proj, avg 253
43%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Pass attempts
›5.9Yards per attempt
›240Model
›243Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+1%PHI pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 175Avg line 252.5Projection 243Ceiling 312
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 252.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 94% | 100% | 100% | Bye |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.