RB, Carolina Panthers
30
Chuba Hubbard
44%
Chuba Hubbard has a 44% chance to score a touchdown against Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, the 20th highest on this week's board. Carolina Panthers are projected for 20.5 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 54, receptions 2.1, receiving yards 18.
Touchdown breakdown
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
28%Share of team TD chances
−8%PHI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
5TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.28 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.57 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 44% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
30Chuba HubbardRB, CAR vs PHIRushing yards: 54 proj, avg 55
48%
62.4Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›22.0Team carries
›54%Carry share
›11.9Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›53Model
›54Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
+1%Game script
+1%PHI run D
−2%PHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 19Avg line 55.5Projection 54Ceiling 88
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Chuba HubbardRB, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.2
36%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.6Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−4%PHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Chuba HubbardRB, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 18 proj, avg 18
50%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.6Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›8.3Yards per catch
›17Model
›18Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−4%PHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 18Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 65% | 84% | 84% | Bye |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.