WR, Carolina Panthers
4
Tetairoa McMillan
33%
Tetairoa McMillan has a 33% chance to score a touchdown against Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, the 49th highest on this week's board. Carolina Panthers are projected for 20.5 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 5.2, receiving yards 80.
Touchdown breakdown
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
+8%PHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.17 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.39 expected TDs = 33% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 33% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
4Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 5.2 proj, avg 5.3
41%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›20%Target share
›8.0Targets
›64%Catch rate
›5.1Model
›5.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 2.3Avg line 5.5Projection 5.2Ceiling 8.1
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 80 proj, avg 78
52%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›20%Target share
›8.0Targets
›64%Catch rate
›5.1Receptions
›15.8Yards per catch
›81Model
›80Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 77.5Projection 80Ceiling 143
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 77.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 80% | 95% | 89% | Bye |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.