WR, Carolina Panthers
18
Jalen Coker
25%
Jalen Coker has a 25% chance to score a touchdown against Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, the 85th highest on this week's board. Carolina Panthers are projected for 20.5 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.9, receiving yards 50.
Touchdown breakdown
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+8%PHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.14 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
18Jalen CokerWR, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 4.2
35%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.8Targets
›79%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.4
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Jalen CokerWR, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 50 proj, avg 51
48%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.8Targets
›79%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›13.0Yards per catch
›50Model
›50Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 51.5Projection 50Ceiling 90
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 51.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 76% | 36% | – | Bye |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.