TE, Carolina Panthers
82
Tommy Tremble
12%
Tommy Tremble has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, the 229th highest on this week's board. Carolina Panthers are projected for 21.3 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.0, receiving yards 16.
Touchdown breakdown
21.3Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−23%PHI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.05 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.08 expected TDs = 8% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
82Tommy TrembleTE, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 2.3
33%
62.2Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›39.6Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.8Targets
›69%Catch rate
›1.9Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−6%Pace
−2%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−13%PHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
33% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
82Tommy TrembleTE, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 16 proj, avg 19
40%
62.2Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›39.6Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.8Targets
›69%Catch rate
›1.9Receptions
›7.9Yards per catch
›15Model
›16Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−6%Pace
−2%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−13%PHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 18.5Projection 16Ceiling 29
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 18.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 56% | 48% | 51% | Bye |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.