TE, Carolina Panthers
84
Mitchell Evans
12%
Mitchell Evans has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, the 241st highest on this week's board. Carolina Panthers are projected for 21.3 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.3.
Touchdown breakdown
21.3Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
−23%PHI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.06 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.10 expected TDs = 9% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
84Mitchell EvansTE, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 1.3 proj, avg 1.5
38%
62.2Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›39.6Team pass attempts
›4%Target share
›1.7Targets
›74%Catch rate
›1.3Model
›1.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−6%Pace
−2%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−13%PHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.3Ceiling 2.8
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 58% | 27% | 61% | Bye |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.