TE, Carolina Panthers
88
Darren Waller
22%
Darren Waller has a 22% chance to score a touchdown against Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, the 114th highest on this week's board. Carolina Panthers are projected for 20.5 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.0, receiving yards 35.
Touchdown breakdown
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−23%PHI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.10 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
88Darren WallerTE, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 3.2
36%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.8Targets
›62%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−13%PHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Darren WallerTE, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 35 proj, avg 37
45%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.8Targets
›62%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›11.3Yards per catch
›34Model
›35Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
−13%PHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 35Ceiling 62
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 44% | 51% | 53% | Bye |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.