WR, Carolina Panthers
13
John Metchie III
20%
John Metchie III has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, the 119th highest on this week's board. Carolina Panthers are projected for 20.5 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.5, receiving yards 30.
Touchdown breakdown
20.5Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+8%PHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.08 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
13John Metchie IIIWR, CAR vs PHIReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
47%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.0Targets
›51%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13John Metchie IIIWR, CAR vs PHIReceiving yards: 30 proj, avg 28
53%
62.4Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.0Targets
›51%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›31Model
›30Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−0%Game script
+5%PHI pass D
+4%PHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 28.5Projection 30Ceiling 54
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 11% | 56% | 37% | Bye |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.