TE, Washington Commanders
85
Chig Okonkwo
12%
Chig Okonkwo has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 178th highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 21.5 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.7, receiving yards 25.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
−23%SF defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.04 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.07 expected TDs = 7% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
85Chig OkonkwoTE, WAS vs SFReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.7
51%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.6Targets
›59%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−13%SF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Chig OkonkwoTE, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 25 proj, avg 27
43%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.6Targets
›59%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›24Model
›25Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−13%SF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 27.5Projection 25Ceiling 45
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | – | – | 58% | 71% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.