QB, Washington Commanders
5
Jayden Daniels
19%
Jayden Daniels has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 130th highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 21.5 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 165, rushing yards 45.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+0%SF defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.06 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
5Jayden DanielsQB, WAS vs SFPassing yards: 165 proj, avg 169
45%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Pass attempts
›4.6Yards per attempt
›164Model
›165Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 119Avg line 169.5Projection 165Ceiling 212
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 169.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Jayden DanielsQB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 45 proj, avg 51
42%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›26%Carry share
›6.8Carries
›6.2Yards per carry
›42Model
›45Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
+0%SF vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 50.5Projection 45Ceiling 84
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 55% | – | – | 100% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.