RB, Washington Commanders
1
Rachaad White
27%
Rachaad White has a 27% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 80th highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 21.5 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 25, receptions 2.3.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−8%SF defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.14 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
1Rachaad WhiteRB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 25 proj, avg 30
37%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›24%Carry share
›6.2Carries
›3.9Yards per carry
›24Model
›25Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
−2%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 29.5Projection 25Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Rachaad WhiteRB, WAS vs SFReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.5
40%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.4Targets
›92%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−4%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.2
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41% | 52% | 43% | – | 60% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.