WR, Washington Commanders
13
Treylon Burks
18%
Treylon Burks has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 155th highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 22.0 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receiving yards 19.
Touchdown breakdown
22.0Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−3%SF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.10 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.24 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
13Treylon BurksWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 19
52%
62.5Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›36.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.0Targets
›43%Catch rate
›1.3Receptions
›14.9Yards per catch
›19Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 18.5Projection 19Ceiling 34
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 18.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 30% | 36% | 59% | 73% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.