WR, Washington Commanders
3
Stefon Diggs
30%
Stefon Diggs has a 30% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 58th highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 21.5 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 4.4, receiving yards 40.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
−3%SF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.16 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.34 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
3Stefon DiggsWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 4.4 proj, avg 4.5
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›4.4Model
›4.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.4Ceiling 7.1
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Stefon DiggsWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 43
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›4.4Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›39Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 42.5Projection 40Ceiling 72
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 42.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 51% | 59% | 66% | – |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.