RB, Washington Commanders
22
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
29%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 63rd highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 21.5 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 43.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
−8%SF defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.17 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.35 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
22Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 43 proj, avg 48
41%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›42%Carry share
›11.2Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›41Model
›43Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
−2%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 47.5Projection 43Ceiling 70
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49% | 37% | 57% | 45% | 35% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.