WR, Washington Commanders
6
Dyami Brown
14%
Dyami Brown has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 208th highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 22.0 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.5, receiving yards 16.
Touchdown breakdown
22.0Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−3%SF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.07 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.14 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
6Dyami BrownWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 1.5 proj, avg 1.6
46%
62.5Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›36.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.9Targets
›53%Catch rate
›1.5Model
›1.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.5Ceiling 3.1
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6Dyami BrownWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 16 proj, avg 18
45%
62.5Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›36.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.9Targets
›53%Catch rate
›1.5Receptions
›10.4Yards per catch
›16Model
›16Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 17.5Projection 16Ceiling 29
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 55% | 30% | 56% | 37% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.