TE, Buffalo Bills
86
Dalton Kincaid
24%
Dalton Kincaid has a 24% chance to score a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the 93rd highest on this week's board. Buffalo Bills are projected for 29.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.3, receiving yards 60.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+34%LV defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.06 × 1.34 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
86Dalton KincaidTE, BUF vs LVReceptions: 3.3 proj, avg 3.2
42%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.1Targets
›82%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+20%LV vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.3Ceiling 5.6
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Dalton KincaidTE, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 60 proj, avg 52
58%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.1Targets
›82%Catch rate
›3.4Receptions
›18.6Yards per catch
›62Model
›60Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+20%LV vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 52.5Projection 60Ceiling 107
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 52.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 66% | 67% | 59% | 70% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.