WR, Buffalo Bills
0
Keon Coleman
25%
Keon Coleman has a 25% chance to score a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the 87th highest on this week's board. Buffalo Bills are projected for 29.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.1, receiving yards 42.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+2%LV defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.11 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.34 expected TDs = 29% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
0Keon ColemanWR, BUF vs LVReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.1
39%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Keon ColemanWR, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 42 proj, avg 40
53%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›13.6Yards per catch
›43Model
›42Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 40.5Projection 42Ceiling 76
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 40.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 74% | 48% | 78% | 70% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.