WR, Buffalo Bills
2
DJ Moore
29%
DJ Moore has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the 73rd highest on this week's board. Buffalo Bills are projected for 29.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 4.1, receiving yards 62.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+2%LV defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.07 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
2DJ MooreWR, BUF vs LVReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.0
38%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.8Targets
›60%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2DJ MooreWR, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 62 proj, avg 59
53%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.8Targets
›60%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›15.5Yards per catch
›63Model
›62Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 59.5Projection 62Ceiling 112
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 59.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 31% | 64% | 39% | – |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.