RB, Buffalo Bills
26
Ty Johnson
18%
Ty Johnson has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the 137th highest on this week's board. Buffalo Bills are projected for 29.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 2.3, receiving yards 28.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−2%LV defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−5%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.08 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
26Ty JohnsonRB, BUF vs LVReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.2
41%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›2.7Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
−1%LV vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
26Ty JohnsonRB, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 26
55%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›2.7Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›28Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
−1%LV vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 25.5Projection 28Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | 23% | 32% | 22% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.