RB, Buffalo Bills
4
James Cook
52%
James Cook has a 52% chance to score a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the 9th highest on this week's board. Buffalo Bills are projected for 29.0 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 113.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
26%Share of team TD chances
−2%LV defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
5TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.26 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.76 expected TDs = 53% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 52% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
4James CookRB, BUF vs LVRushing yards: 113 proj, avg 102
57%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›30.6Team carries
›66%Carry share
›20.2Carries
›5.7Yards per carry
›116Model
›113Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+3%Game script
+6%LV run D
−1%LV vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 41Avg line 102.5Projection 113Ceiling 185
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 102.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 74% | 67% | 59% | 62% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.