QB, Buffalo Bills
17
Josh Allen
45%
Josh Allen has a 45% chance to score a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the 16th highest on this week's board. Buffalo Bills are projected for 29.0 points indoors. The model projects passing yards 259, rushing yards 53.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
22%Share of team TD chances
+23%LV defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
8TDs this season
−9%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.22 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.79 expected TDs = 55% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 45% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
17Josh AllenQB, BUF vs LVPassing yards: 259 proj, avg 242
62%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Pass attempts
›8.5Yards per attempt
›265Model
›259Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+6%LV pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 186Avg line 241.5Projection 259Ceiling 332
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 241.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Josh AllenQB, BUF vs LVRushing yards: 53 proj, avg 43
60%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›30.6Team carries
›27%Carry share
›8.4Carries
›6.7Yards per carry
›56Model
›53Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+3%Game script
+6%LV run D
+17%LV vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 43.5Projection 53Ceiling 100
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.