WR, Buffalo Bills
10
Khalil Shakir
23%
Khalil Shakir has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the 100th highest on this week's board. Buffalo Bills are projected for 29.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 4.0, receiving yards 48.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+2%LV defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.08 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.25 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
10Khalil ShakirWR, BUF vs LVReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 4.0
37%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Khalil ShakirWR, BUF vs LVReceiving yards: 48 proj, avg 47
52%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›12.2Yards per catch
›48Model
›48Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+1%LV vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 46.5Projection 48Ceiling 86
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 46.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 49% | 73% | 76% | 69% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.