TE, Buffalo Bills
88
Dawson Knox
25%
Dawson Knox has a 25% chance to score a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the 94th highest on this week's board. Buffalo Bills are projected for 29.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 1.9.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+34%LV defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.07 × 1.34 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.33 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
88Dawson KnoxTE, BUF vs LVReceptions: 1.9 proj, avg 1.7
57%
61.7Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›31.1Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.5Targets
›81%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›1.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−3%Game script
+4%LV pass D
+20%LV vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 1.5Projection 1.9Ceiling 3.7
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 76% | 70% | 61% | 70% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.