WR, Kansas City Chiefs
13
Cyrus Allen
10%
Cyrus Allen has a 10% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, the 239th highest on this week's board. Kansas City Chiefs are projected for 24.5 points in 64°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 0.3, receiving yards NaN.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+3%LAC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
+850Best odds (FanDuel), 11% implied
10%Model + market blend
-1%Edge vs book
2.6 × 0.05 × 1.03 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.12 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,223 past player-games to 10% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
13Cyrus AllenWR, KC vs LACExpanded role, R. Rice outReceptions: 0.3 proj, avg 0.0
3%
61.1Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›4%Target share
›1.1Targets
›30%Catch rate
›0.3Model
›0.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+2%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 0.3Ceiling 0.9
The ring shows a
3% chance he goes over 1.5, the BetRivers line (best over price +128, implied 44%). Edge: -41%. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Cyrus AllenWR, KC vs LACExpanded role, R. Rice outReceiving yards: NaN proj, avg 0
NaN%
61.1Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›4%Target share
›1.1Targets
›30%Catch rate
›0.3Receptions
›NaNYards per catch
›NaNModel
›NaNFinal receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+2%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor NaNAvg line 12.5Projection NaNCeiling NaN
The ring shows a
NaN% chance he goes over 12.5, the FanDuel line (best over price -114, implied 53%). Edge: NaN%. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 4% | 2% | 8% | Bye | Bye |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.