WR, Indianapolis Colts
2
Josh Downs
24%
Josh Downs has a 24% chance to score a touchdown against Tennessee Titans in Week 6, the 94th highest on this week's board. Indianapolis Colts are projected for 25.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.6, receiving yards 41.
Touchdown breakdown
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−3%TEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.23 expected TDs = 20% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
2Josh DownsWR, IND vs TENReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.9
49%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.8Targets
›61%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.1
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Josh DownsWR, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 44
47%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.8Targets
›61%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›11.4Yards per catch
›40Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 43.5Projection 41Ceiling 74
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 83% | 68% | 77% | 85% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.