WR, Kansas City Chiefs
1
Xavier Worthy
29%
Xavier Worthy has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, the 66th highest on this week's board. Kansas City Chiefs are projected for 25.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.1, receiving yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
+2%LAC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.12 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.31 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
1Xavier WorthyWR, KC vs LACReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.2
37%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.1Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Xavier WorthyWR, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 36
46%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.1Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›10.7Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 86% | 83% | 75% | Bye |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.