WR, Kansas City Chiefs
4
Rashee Rice
29%
Rashee Rice has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, the 62nd highest on this week's board. Kansas City Chiefs are projected for 25.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 5.7, receiving yards 66.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+2%LAC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.08 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.25 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
4Rashee RiceWR, KC vs LACReceptions: 5.7 proj, avg 5.7
50%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›8.1Targets
›70%Catch rate
›5.7Model
›5.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.6Avg line 5.5Projection 5.7Ceiling 8.7
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Rashee RiceWR, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 66 proj, avg 68
48%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›8.1Targets
›70%Catch rate
›5.7Receptions
›11.5Yards per catch
›66Model
›66Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 14Avg line 68.5Projection 66Ceiling 119
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 68.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 79% | 77% | 10% | Bye |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.