QB, Kansas City Chiefs
15
Patrick Mahomes
15%
Patrick Mahomes has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, the 167th highest on this week's board. Kansas City Chiefs are projected for 25.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 241, rushing yards 23.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+23%LAC defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.04 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
15Patrick MahomesQB, KC vs LACPassing yards: 241 proj, avg 258
38%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Pass attempts
›7.5Yards per attempt
›235Model
›241Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−4%LAC pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 173Avg line 257.5Projection 241Ceiling 309
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 257.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Patrick MahomesQB, KC vs LACRushing yards: 23 proj, avg 20
56%
61.2Projected plays
›49%Run rate
›29.9Team carries
›13%Carry share
›3.7Carries
›6.4Yards per carry
›24Model
›23Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+6%Game script
+2%LAC run D
+17%LAC vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 2Avg line 20.5Projection 23Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Bye |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.