TE, Kansas City Chiefs
87
Travis Kelce
25%
Travis Kelce has a 25% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, the 86th highest on this week's board. Kansas City Chiefs are projected for 25.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 4.0, receiving yards 50.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−14%LAC defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
87Travis KelceTE, KC vs LACReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 4.2
36%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.8Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.9Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
−8%LAC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Travis KelceTE, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 50 proj, avg 56
42%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.8Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.9Receptions
›12.2Yards per catch
›48Model
›50Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
−8%LAC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 55.5Projection 50Ceiling 89
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 85% | 79% | 83% | Bye |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.