RB, Kansas City Chiefs
9
Kenneth Walker III
66%
Kenneth Walker III has a 66% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, the 1st highest on this week's board. Kansas City Chiefs are projected for 25.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 144, receptions 2.9, receiving yards 20.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
40%Share of team TD chances
+4%LAC defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
6TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.40 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
1.10 expected TDs = 67% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 66% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACRushing yards: 144 proj, avg 134
55%
61.2Projected plays
›49%Run rate
›29.9Team carries
›76%Carry share
›22.8Carries
›6.5Yards per carry
›147Model
›144Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+6%Game script
+2%LAC run D
+1%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 52Avg line 134.5Projection 144Ceiling 236
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 134.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACReceptions: 2.9 proj, avg 3.0
33%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›4.7Targets
›61%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+2%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.7Avg line 3.5Projection 2.9Ceiling 5.0
The ring shows a
33% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 20 proj, avg 21
44%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›4.7Targets
›61%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›6.8Yards per catch
›19Model
›20Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+2%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 21.5Projection 20Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 82% | 73% | 75% | Bye |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.