TE, Kansas City Chiefs
83
Noah Gray
15%
Noah Gray has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, the 194th highest on this week's board. Kansas City Chiefs are projected for 24.8 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.5.
Touchdown breakdown
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−14%LAC defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.05 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
83Noah GrayTE, KC vs LACReceptions: 1.5 proj, avg 1.6
46%
61.1Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.3Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.5Targets
›61%Catch rate
›1.5Model
›1.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
−8%LAC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.5Ceiling 3.1
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 50% | 63% | 68% | Bye |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.