RB, Atlanta Falcons
15
Brian Robinson
30%
Brian Robinson has a 30% chance to score a touchdown against Chicago Bears in Week 6, the 60th highest on this week's board. Atlanta Falcons are projected for 24.8 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 43.
Touchdown breakdown
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
18%Share of team TD chances
−2%CHI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.18 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.46 expected TDs = 37% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
15Brian RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIRushing yards: 43 proj, avg 42
52%
65.5Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›33.7Team carries
›32%Carry share
›10.8Carries
›4.1Yards per carry
›44Model
›43Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%CHI run D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 42.5Projection 43Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 42.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 48% | 27% | 42% | 22% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.