WR, New York Jets
5
Garrett Wilson
34%
Garrett Wilson has a 34% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 44th highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 6.4, receiving yards 74.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
+2%NE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.20 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.42 expected TDs = 34% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
5Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 6.4 proj, avg 5.8
61%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›28%Target share
›9.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Model
›6.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3.2Avg line 5.5Projection 6.4Ceiling 9.6
The ring shows a
61% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 74 proj, avg 68
56%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›28%Target share
›9.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Receptions
›11.5Yards per catch
›76Model
›74Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 67.5Projection 74Ceiling 133
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 67.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 88% | 94% | 100% | 93% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.