RB, Indianapolis Colts
28
Jonathan Taylor
59%
Jonathan Taylor has a 59% chance to score a touchdown against Tennessee Titans in Week 6, the 7th highest on this week's board. Indianapolis Colts are projected for 25.5 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 85, receptions 2.3, receiving yards 19.
Touchdown breakdown
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
37%Share of team TD chances
−8%TEN defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
6TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.37 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.88 expected TDs = 59% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 59% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
28Jonathan TaylorRB, IND vs TENRushing yards: 85 proj, avg 85
49%
61.1Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›27.2Team carries
›71%Carry share
›19.3Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›85Model
›85Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
+6%Game script
+0%TEN run D
−2%TEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 31Avg line 85.5Projection 85Ceiling 139
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 85.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
28Jonathan TaylorRB, IND vs TENReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.6
42%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.2Targets
›71%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−4%TEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
28Jonathan TaylorRB, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 22
43%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.2Targets
›71%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›8.3Yards per catch
›19Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−4%TEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 21.5Projection 19Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 94% | 85% | 71% | 73% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.