RB, New York Giants
23
Najee Harris
23%
Najee Harris has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 101st highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 29.
Touchdown breakdown
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+29%NO defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−14%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.14 × 1.29 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.46 expected TDs = 37% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
23Najee HarrisRB, NYG vs NORushing yards: 29 proj, avg 24
62%
65.7Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›28.7Team carries
›26%Carry share
›7.4Carries
›4.1Yards per carry
›31Model
›29Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−1%Game script
+7%NO run D
+8%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 24.5Projection 29Ceiling 48
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 14% | 22% | 18% | 18% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.