CHIChicago Bears26.3projected
1:00 PM ETSun, Oct 18
CHI -122ATL +110ATL +1.5O/U 51No weather impact
3days20hrs44min08secATLAtlanta Falcons24.8projected
Mercedes-Benz StadiumRetractable roof
TurfRetractable roof
72°FTemperature
0 mphWind
0%Rain chance
69.9Projected plays per team
Played indoors. The model applies no weather adjustment.
Touchdown chances
Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons
Player props
9Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL vs CHIPassing yards: 242 proj, avg 228
60%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Pass attempts
›7.8Yards per attempt
›247Model
›242Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%CHI pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 174Avg line 228.5Projection 242Ceiling 311
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 228.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Zachariah BranchWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 1.8
60%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.3Targets
›91%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 1.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Drake LondonWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 6.1 proj, avg 5.5
58%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›9.3Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.4Model
›6.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3.0Avg line 5.5Projection 6.1Ceiling 9.3
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Drake LondonWR, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 101 proj, avg 89
57%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›9.3Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.4Receptions
›16.5Yards per catch
›105Model
›101Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 89.5Projection 101Ceiling 181
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 89.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Jahan DotsonWR, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 32 proj, avg 30
55%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.7Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.7Receptions
›18.9Yards per catch
›33Model
›32Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 29.5Projection 32Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Colston LovelandTE, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 31
55%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.1Receptions
›11.3Yards per catch
›35Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
+3%ATL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 31.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Rome OdunzeWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 58 proj, avg 55
54%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›53%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›16.7Yards per catch
›59Model
›58Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 54.5Projection 58Ceiling 104
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 54.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 38
54%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.9Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.3Receptions
›9.4Yards per catch
›41Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 40Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIRushing yards: 108 proj, avg 104
53%
65.5Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›33.7Team carries
›60%Carry share
›20.2Carries
›5.4Yards per carry
›109Model
›108Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%CHI run D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 39Avg line 104.5Projection 108Ceiling 177
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 104.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 49
52%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.9Receptions
›13.1Yards per catch
›52Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 11Avg line 49.5Projection 51Ceiling 92
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Brian RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIRushing yards: 43 proj, avg 42
52%
65.5Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›33.7Team carries
›32%Carry share
›10.8Carries
›4.1Yards per carry
›44Model
›43Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%CHI run D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 42.5Projection 43Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 42.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Kyle PittsTE, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 35 proj, avg 35
51%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.3Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›35Model
›35Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−13%CHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 34.5Projection 35Ceiling 63
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 34.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Jahan DotsonWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.6
51%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.7Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.7Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 21 proj, avg 21
51%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›21Model
›21Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 20.5Projection 21Ceiling 37
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Kalif RaymondWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 44 proj, avg 45
47%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›88%Catch rate
›4.3Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›43Model
›44Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 45.5Projection 44Ceiling 78
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Rome OdunzeWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.5 proj, avg 3.5
47%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›53%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.5Ceiling 5.9
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Kyle PittsTE, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 3.5 proj, avg 3.3
46%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.3Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−13%CHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.5Ceiling 5.9
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
25Kyle MonangaiRB, CHI vs ATLRushing yards: 60 proj, avg 64
46%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›34.6Team carries
›35%Carry share
›12.3Carries
›4.8Yards per carry
›59Model
›60Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%ATL run D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 22Avg line 63.5Projection 60Ceiling 99
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 63.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Kalif RaymondWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 4.4 proj, avg 4.8
45%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›88%Catch rate
›4.3Model
›4.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.4Ceiling 7.1
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLRushing yards: 65 proj, avg 70
44%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›34.6Team carries
›41%Carry share
›14.2Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›63Model
›65Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%ATL run D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 23Avg line 69.5Projection 65Ceiling 106
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 69.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 2.4 proj, avg 2.5
42%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.4Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 4.0
42%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.9Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.3Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−1%CHI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 4.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.9
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Colston LovelandTE, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.0
37%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.1Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
+3%ATL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 4.0
36%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.9Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Defenses
| Defense | vs RB TDs | vs WR TDs | vs TE TDs | QB rush TDs | Pass yds rank | Rush yds rank | Red zone TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | −3% | +3% | −33% | +33% | 12 | 8 | 41% |
| Atlanta Falcons | −3% | −4% | +8% | +0% | 27 | 4 | 55% |