RB, Las Vegas Raiders
2
Ashton Jeanty
61%
Ashton Jeanty has a 61% chance to score a touchdown against Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the 4th highest on this week's board. Las Vegas Raiders are projected for 24.5 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 58, receptions 4.1, receiving yards 39.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
30%Share of team TD chances
+19%BUF defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.29 × 1.19 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.87 expected TDs = 58% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 61% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
2Ashton JeantyRB, LV vs BUFRushing yards: 58 proj, avg 58
50%
63.4Projected plays
›39%Run rate
›25.0Team carries
›63%Carry share
›15.8Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›58Model
›58Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%BUF run D
+5%BUF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 57.5Projection 58Ceiling 95
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 57.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Ashton JeantyRB, LV vs BUFReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 3.9
58%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›5.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+11%BUF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 3.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Ashton JeantyRB, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 39 proj, avg 34
59%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›5.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›41Model
›39Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+11%BUF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 33.5Projection 39Ceiling 70
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 33.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 81% | 84% | 67% | 53% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.