RB, New York Giants
44
Cam Skattebo
45%
Cam Skattebo has a 45% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 17th highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 64, receptions 2.6, receiving yards 23.
Touchdown breakdown
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
17%Share of team TD chances
+29%NO defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.17 × 1.29 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.51 expected TDs = 40% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 45% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NORushing yards: 64 proj, avg 56
61%
65.7Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›28.7Team carries
›52%Carry share
›14.8Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›67Model
›64Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−1%Game script
+7%NO run D
+8%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 23Avg line 55.5Projection 64Ceiling 105
The ring shows a
61% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NOReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.4
48%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+17%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 20
59%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›9.0Yards per catch
›24Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+17%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 19.5Projection 23Ceiling 41
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 59% | 77% | 64% | 63% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.