WR, Los Angeles Rams
12
Puka Nacua
52%
Puka Nacua has a 52% chance to score a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, the 8th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Rams are projected for 32.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 9.5, receiving yards 130.
Touchdown breakdown
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+28%ARI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.14 × 1.28 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.64 expected TDs = 47% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 52% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
12Puka NacuaWR, LA vs ARIReceptions: 9.5 proj, avg 9.0
48%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›12.1Targets
›80%Catch rate
›9.7Model
›9.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5.6Avg line 9.5Projection 9.5Ceiling 13.4
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 9.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Puka NacuaWR, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 130 proj, avg 109
60%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›29%Target share
›12.1Targets
›80%Catch rate
›9.7Receptions
›14.1Yards per catch
›137Model
›130Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 27Avg line 109.5Projection 130Ceiling 233
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 109.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | – | – | 90% | 85% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.