QB, Atlanta Falcons
9
Michael Penix Jr.
8%
Michael Penix Jr. has a 8% chance to score a touchdown against Chicago Bears in Week 6, the 188th highest on this week's board. Atlanta Falcons are projected for 24.8 points indoors. The model projects passing yards 242.
Touchdown breakdown
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
+23%CHI defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.02 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.07 expected TDs = 6% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 8% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
9Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL vs CHIPassing yards: 242 proj, avg 228
60%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Pass attempts
›7.8Yards per attempt
›247Model
›242Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%CHI pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 174Avg line 228.5Projection 242Ceiling 311
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 228.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | 100% | 100% | 95% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.