WR, Atlanta Falcons
4
Jahan Dotson
20%
Jahan Dotson has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against Chicago Bears in Week 6, the 121st highest on this week's board. Atlanta Falcons are projected for 24.8 points indoors. The model projects receptions 1.7, receiving yards 32.
Touchdown breakdown
24.8Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+2%CHI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.09 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.25 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
4Jahan DotsonWR, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.6
51%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.7Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.7Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Jahan DotsonWR, ATL vs CHIReceiving yards: 32 proj, avg 30
55%
65.5Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›31.8Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.7Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.7Receptions
›18.9Yards per catch
›33Model
›32Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
+1%CHI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 29.5Projection 32Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 75% | 66% | 63% | 66% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.