TE, Philadelphia Eagles
88
Dallas Goedert
25%
Dallas Goedert has a 25% chance to score a touchdown against Carolina Panthers in Week 6, the 89th highest on this week's board. Philadelphia Eagles are projected for 20.0 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 4.2, receiving yards 46.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+21%CAR defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.08 × 1.21 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
88Dallas GoedertTE, PHI vs CARReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 3.9
60%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.6Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.3Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
+12%CAR vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 3.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.8
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Dallas GoedertTE, PHI vs CARReceiving yards: 46 proj, avg 40
59%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.6Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.3Receptions
›11.2Yards per catch
›48Model
›46Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
+12%CAR vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 39.5Projection 46Ceiling 82
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 39.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 25% | – | – | 69% |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.